Why BTC (Bitcoin) may be stuck in an downward trend channel

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/zaBbkenf-Why-BTC-BItcoin-may-be-stuck-in-an-downward-trend-channel/
Looking at past Fib retracements of Bitcoin it appears Bitcoin likes to retrace past gains almost fully (80%+) to come back stronger. The decline beginning of 2018 and 2014 show that impressively.
There is a clear downward channel right now to be observed for Bitcoin if it does not break out of it soon, it may well be doomed for the $3,000 range again or even lower (Szenario 2).
It is difficult to imagine a scenario that Bitcoin will stabilize. Maybe in a triangle formation (Szenario 1) if it bounces of the $7,000-some range up moves upwards to then do the logarithmic climb again.
With the market being moved by big investor whales my guess would be that they will keep cashing in on their gains, bleed the market and wait for fresh money to get into the market again.

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