My short view is being confirmed strongly by the Bitcoin bears today. Of my two scenarios (see related ideas link) the downward scenario 2 is now confirmed.
We can all only speculate how far the retracement is going to go. $5,700 seems very likely.
Without strong market or buyer side signals we may even see the $3,215 level tested again.
My crystal ball says we will hit bottom year-end and then see the uptrend again.
Keep in mind two things (A) the overall downtrend since January 2017 is still very much pressing down on the market.
And very important (B) the overall market capitalization of the crypto market of now just above 200 billion USD is for example just below the value of Wells Fargo only.
All the crypto market analysts and folks trying to make a buck are betting the money on this level of market value.
Sometimes the crypto hype feels a bit overstated which explains why capital is bleeding away after the end of 2017 super parabolic hype.
As I stated Sept. 27, Bitcoin very much is in a clear downward trend on the USD weekly chart. Tellingly the recent massive breakout above the $10,000 range didn’t hold on the weekly. The two scenarios are still intact. So either BTC will breakout of the triangle and downward trend or it will be stuck in winter mode and the bears will go hibernate BTC into and maybe through the winter. Alternatively we all get the holiday season gift we are hoping for.
Looking at past Fib retracements of Bitcoin it appears Bitcoin likes to retrace past gains almost fully (80%+) to come back stronger. The decline beginning of 2018 and 2014 show that impressively.
There is a clear downward channel right now to be observed for Bitcoin if it does not break out of it soon, it may well be doomed for the $3,000 range again or even lower (Szenario 2).
It is difficult to imagine a scenario that Bitcoin will stabilize. Maybe in a triangle formation (Szenario 1) if it bounces of the $7,000-some range up moves upwards to then do the logarithmic climb again.
With the market being moved by big investor whales my guess would be that they will keep cashing in on their gains, bleed the market and wait for fresh money to get into the market again.